Real U.S. State Personal Income Growth Slowed in 2019

National Trends and State-Level Variation

Real personal income across U.S. states expanded at a slower pace in 2019 than in the preceding year. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that growth eased to 2.4 percent from 3.1 percent in 2018. The measure adjusts nominal personal income for differences in regional price levels and for changes in the national personal consumption expenditures price index.

The deceleration occurred even as no state recorded an outright decline. This suggests that while economic momentum moderated, underlying conditions remained supportive of income gains everywhere. The range of outcomes was nevertheless substantial, pointing to meaningful differences in regional economic performance that warrant closer examination by analysts and policymakers.

Leading and Lagging States

Maine posted the strongest growth in real personal income at 4.1 percent, followed closely by Washington at 4.0 percent and Utah at 3.8 percent. These figures stand well above the national average and indicate that certain regional economies continued to generate robust income gains even as the broader expansion moderated.

At the other end of the spectrum, Hawaii, Wyoming, and Rhode Island each recorded the weakest growth, at 0.7 percent. While still positive, these rates were less than one-fifth the pace registered in the fastest-growing state. The clustering of the three slowest states at the identical growth rate is noteworthy and may reflect shared structural characteristics or common exposure to sectors that underperformed in 2019.

Performance Across Metropolitan Areas

Metropolitan-area results displayed even greater dispersion than the state-level figures. The fastest growth occurred in Hanford-Corcoran, California, where real personal income rose 7.6 percent. This outlier performance highlights how localized economic conditions can diverge sharply from broader state or national trends.

On the downside, two metropolitan areas experienced outright contractions. Panama City, Florida, and Wheeling, West Virginia-Ohio, both saw real personal income fall 3.2 percent. These declines stand in contrast to the universal gains recorded at the state level and underscore the uneven impact of economic forces across smaller geographic units. Among large metropolitan areas with populations exceeding two million, Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, Texas, led with 5.3 percent growth, while Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Florida, Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Illinois-Indiana-Wisconsin, and Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Michigan, shared the slowest growth rate of 1.4 percent.

Regional Price Parities and Their Implications

Regional price parities, which express local price levels as a percentage of the national average, continued to show pronounced geographic differences in 2019. Hawaii recorded the highest state-level parity at 119.3, followed by California at 116.4 and New York at 116.3. These elevated readings largely reflect higher costs for housing and other non-tradable goods and services. At the opposite end, Mississippi posted the lowest parity at 84.4, with Arkansas at 84.7 and Alabama at 85.8.

The variation in housing rents was even more extreme. California’s rent parity reached 153.6, while Mississippi’s stood at just 60.0. Among large metropolitan areas, San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley registered the highest overall parity at 134.5 and the highest rent parity at 200.3. By contrast, Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio, showed the lowest overall parity at 89.9 and the lowest rent parity at 76.3. Across all metropolitan areas, San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, California, had the highest rent parity at 224.0, while Beckley, West Virginia, recorded the lowest at 44.0. These differentials matter because they directly affect the purchasing power of nominal income and therefore the calculation of real personal income.

Methodological Context and Data Revisions

The 2019 estimates incorporate the results of the Bureau’s annual update of state and metropolitan area personal income. This update revised figures for 2017 and 2018 to reflect more complete and detailed source data. Such revisions are routine but underscore that initial releases are subject to subsequent refinement as additional information becomes available.

Real personal income is derived by first dividing current-dollar personal income by the regional price parity to obtain income at constant national prices, then dividing the result by the national personal consumption expenditures price index to express the series in chained 2012 dollars. The implicit regional price deflator, calculated as the product of the regional price parity and the national price index, provides a measure of regional inflation. It is important to note that these implicit deflators are indirect estimates and may differ from direct regional price measures published by other agencies because of differences in source data and methodology.

Looking Ahead

The release of 2019 real personal income data was accelerated by five months relative to the prior year’s schedule, reflecting ongoing efforts to make regional statistics available more promptly. This change should benefit analysts seeking timely insight into geographic economic disparities.

Further improvements in the data landscape are anticipated. On December 14, 2021, the Bureau plans to release official statistics on real personal consumption expenditures by state for the first time. These new figures will be combined with real personal income data in a single release covering 2020, potentially offering a richer picture of regional economic conditions. Until then, the 2019 estimates provide the most current benchmark for assessing how price-adjusted income evolved across states and metropolitan areas in the final year before the profound disruptions that began in 2020.

Source

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis published this record on 2020-12-15. Pennington Financial accessed it on 2026-10-17.